{ "title": "1982 lunar eclipse evidence · Babylon comparison", "reviewed": "2026-11-11", "scope": "A descriptive concordance of rounded advance predictions with retained centre timings; no physical ephemeris refit or formal significance test.", "authors_credit": "Original predictions: Jean Meeus, printed by Roger W. Sinnott (1982). Catalogue and analysis: David Herald and Roger W. Sinnott (2014), drawing on observations preserved by Byron Soulsby, Joseph Ashbrook and the observer network. Babylon provides this concordance, interval display and source-role map.", "predictions": [ { "feature": "Grimaldi", "direction": "Ingress", "prediction_ut": "09:53", "prediction_seconds": 35580, "n": 18, "observed_median_seconds": 35604.0, "median_residual_seconds": 24.0, "minimum_residual_seconds": -60, "maximum_residual_seconds": 36 }, { "feature": "Grimaldi", "direction": "Egress", "prediction_ut": "12:14", "prediction_seconds": 44040, "n": 4, "observed_median_seconds": 44016.0, "median_residual_seconds": -24.0, "minimum_residual_seconds": -36, "maximum_residual_seconds": 30 }, { "feature": "Aristarchus", "direction": "Ingress", "prediction_ut": "10:08", "prediction_seconds": 36480, "n": 21, "observed_median_seconds": 36450, "median_residual_seconds": -30, "minimum_residual_seconds": -90, "maximum_residual_seconds": 0 }, { "feature": "Aristarchus", "direction": "Egress", "prediction_ut": "12:10", "prediction_seconds": 43800, "n": 4, "observed_median_seconds": 43767.0, "median_residual_seconds": -33.0, "minimum_residual_seconds": -60, "maximum_residual_seconds": 78 }, { "feature": "Kepler", "direction": "Ingress", "prediction_ut": "10:05", "prediction_seconds": 36300, "n": 15, "observed_median_seconds": 36300, "median_residual_seconds": 0, "minimum_residual_seconds": -54, "maximum_residual_seconds": 36 }, { "feature": "Kepler", "direction": "Egress", "prediction_ut": "12:18", "prediction_seconds": 44280, "n": 3, "observed_median_seconds": 44232, "median_residual_seconds": -48, "minimum_residual_seconds": -54, "maximum_residual_seconds": 24 }, { "feature": "Copernicus", "direction": "Ingress", "prediction_ut": "10:14", "prediction_seconds": 36840, "n": 27, "observed_median_seconds": 36834, "median_residual_seconds": -6, "minimum_residual_seconds": -90, "maximum_residual_seconds": 30 }, { "feature": "Copernicus", "direction": "Egress", "prediction_ut": "12:24", "prediction_seconds": 44640, "n": 7, "observed_median_seconds": 44640, "median_residual_seconds": 0, "minimum_residual_seconds": -24, "maximum_residual_seconds": 30 }, { "feature": "Pytheas", "direction": "Ingress", "prediction_ut": "10:17", "prediction_seconds": 37020, "n": 21, "observed_median_seconds": 37044, "median_residual_seconds": 24, "minimum_residual_seconds": -18, "maximum_residual_seconds": 54 }, { "feature": "Pytheas", "direction": "Egress", "prediction_ut": "12:20", "prediction_seconds": 44400, "n": 0, "observed_median_seconds": null, "median_residual_seconds": null, "minimum_residual_seconds": null, "maximum_residual_seconds": null }, { "feature": "Timocharis", "direction": "Ingress", "prediction_ut": "10:23", "prediction_seconds": 37380, "n": 17, "observed_median_seconds": 37398, "median_residual_seconds": 18, "minimum_residual_seconds": -42, "maximum_residual_seconds": 42 }, { "feature": "Timocharis", "direction": "Egress", "prediction_ut": "12:20", "prediction_seconds": 44400, "n": 2, "observed_median_seconds": 44475.0, "median_residual_seconds": 75.0, "minimum_residual_seconds": 30, "maximum_residual_seconds": 120 }, { "feature": "Tycho", "direction": "Ingress", "prediction_ut": "10:12", "prediction_seconds": 36720, "n": 25, "observed_median_seconds": 36738, "median_residual_seconds": 18, "minimum_residual_seconds": -24, "maximum_residual_seconds": 36 }, { "feature": "Tycho", "direction": "Egress", "prediction_ut": "12:43", "prediction_seconds": 45780, "n": 6, "observed_median_seconds": 45768.0, "median_residual_seconds": -12.0, "minimum_residual_seconds": -24, "maximum_residual_seconds": 54 }, { "feature": "Plato", "direction": "Ingress", "prediction_ut": "10:35", "prediction_seconds": 38100, "n": 22, "observed_median_seconds": 38094.0, "median_residual_seconds": -6.0, "minimum_residual_seconds": -78, "maximum_residual_seconds": 30 }, { "feature": "Plato", "direction": "Egress", "prediction_ut": "12:12", "prediction_seconds": 43920, "n": 4, "observed_median_seconds": 43893.0, "median_residual_seconds": -27.0, "minimum_residual_seconds": -42, "maximum_residual_seconds": 6 }, { "feature": "Aristoteles", "direction": "Ingress", "prediction_ut": "10:44", "prediction_seconds": 38640, "n": 11, "observed_median_seconds": 38616, "median_residual_seconds": -24, "minimum_residual_seconds": -84, "maximum_residual_seconds": 30 }, { "feature": "Aristoteles", "direction": "Egress", "prediction_ut": "12:19", "prediction_seconds": 44340, "n": 0, "observed_median_seconds": null, "median_residual_seconds": null, "minimum_residual_seconds": null, "maximum_residual_seconds": null }, { "feature": "Eudoxus", "direction": "Ingress", "prediction_ut": "10:42", "prediction_seconds": 38520, "n": 11, "observed_median_seconds": 38520, "median_residual_seconds": 0, "minimum_residual_seconds": -48, "maximum_residual_seconds": 24 }, { "feature": "Eudoxus", "direction": "Egress", "prediction_ut": "12:22", "prediction_seconds": 44520, "n": 1, "observed_median_seconds": 44484, "median_residual_seconds": -36, "minimum_residual_seconds": -36, "maximum_residual_seconds": -36 }, { "feature": "Manilius", "direction": "Ingress", "prediction_ut": "10:30", "prediction_seconds": 37800, "n": 17, "observed_median_seconds": 37824, "median_residual_seconds": 24, "minimum_residual_seconds": -48, "maximum_residual_seconds": 48 }, { "feature": "Manilius", "direction": "Egress", "prediction_ut": "12:35", "prediction_seconds": 45300, "n": 2, "observed_median_seconds": 45288.0, "median_residual_seconds": -12.0, "minimum_residual_seconds": -18, "maximum_residual_seconds": -6 }, { "feature": "Menelaus", "direction": "Ingress", "prediction_ut": "10:34", "prediction_seconds": 38040, "n": 16, "observed_median_seconds": 38052.0, "median_residual_seconds": 12.0, "minimum_residual_seconds": -60, "maximum_residual_seconds": 36 }, { "feature": "Menelaus", "direction": "Egress", "prediction_ut": "12:37", "prediction_seconds": 45420, "n": 3, "observed_median_seconds": 45414, "median_residual_seconds": -6, "minimum_residual_seconds": -12, "maximum_residual_seconds": 12 }, { "feature": "Plinius", "direction": "Ingress", "prediction_ut": "10:38", "prediction_seconds": 38280, "n": 14, "observed_median_seconds": 38268.0, "median_residual_seconds": -12.0, "minimum_residual_seconds": -102, "maximum_residual_seconds": 18 }, { "feature": "Plinius", "direction": "Egress", "prediction_ut": "12:40", "prediction_seconds": 45600, "n": 1, "observed_median_seconds": 45630, "median_residual_seconds": 30, "minimum_residual_seconds": 30, "maximum_residual_seconds": 30 }, { "feature": "Taruntius", "direction": "Ingress", "prediction_ut": "10:45", "prediction_seconds": 38700, "n": 6, "observed_median_seconds": 38697.0, "median_residual_seconds": -3.0, "minimum_residual_seconds": -30, "maximum_residual_seconds": 24 }, { "feature": "Taruntius", "direction": "Egress", "prediction_ut": "12:52", "prediction_seconds": 46320, "n": 1, "observed_median_seconds": 46368, "median_residual_seconds": 48, "minimum_residual_seconds": 48, "maximum_residual_seconds": 48 }, { "feature": "Proclus", "direction": "Ingress", "prediction_ut": "10:48", "prediction_seconds": 38880, "n": 13, "observed_median_seconds": 38892, "median_residual_seconds": 12, "minimum_residual_seconds": -36, "maximum_residual_seconds": 24 }, { "feature": "Proclus", "direction": "Egress", "prediction_ut": "12:47", "prediction_seconds": 46020, "n": 2, "observed_median_seconds": 46050.0, "median_residual_seconds": 30.0, "minimum_residual_seconds": 18, "maximum_residual_seconds": 42 } ], "events_1982": [ { "date_ut": "1982-01-09", "total_retained_records": 469, "limb_contacts": 25, "feature_centres": 44, "feature_edges": 400 }, { "date_ut": "1982-07-06", "total_retained_records": 1164, "limb_contacts": 84, "feature_centres": 674, "feature_edges": 406 }, { "date_ut": "1982-12-30", "total_retained_records": 535, "limb_contacts": 44, "feature_centres": 347, "feature_edges": 144 } ], "counts": { "all_catalogue_records": 22539, "catalogue_eclipse_dates": 94, "december_records": 535, "december_limb_contacts": 44, "december_feature_centres": 347, "december_feature_edges": 144, "matched_centres": 294, "unmatched_centres": 53, "predicted_features": 15, "prediction_pairs": 30, "pairs_with_retained_centres": 28, "medians_within_30s_of_printed_time": 23 }, "rounding_model": { "label": "Nearest-minute interval model", "halfwidth_seconds": 30, "formula": "If printed time is P and median observation is O, possible O−unrounded-P values span (O−P)−30 to (O−P)+30 seconds.", "limit": "This interval models publication rounding alone, not observing scatter or physical-model uncertainty. It does not recover an exact unrounded prediction." }, "sources": [ { "id": "original", "title": "Roger W. Sinnott, “What Size the Umbra?”, Sky & Telescope 64 (December 1982), pp.618–619", "url": "https://vizier.cfa.harvard.edu/vizier/ftp/cats/vi/140/doc.txt", "scope": "Printed p.619: 15 pairs of approximate Universal Times credited to Jean Meeus for December 30. Factual times transcribed from an inspected reading copy. The article analyses the July eclipse; its final paragraphs supply the December predictions. Link provides the catalogue bibliography, not a copy of the scan.", "role": "Advance prediction", "lineage": "Contemporary publication; predicted times are not measurements." }, { "id": "catalogue", "title": "Herald & Sinnott, Catalogue of Lunar Eclipse Crater Timings · CDS VI/140", "url": "https://cdsarc.cds.unistra.fr/viz-bin/ReadMe/VI/140?format=html&tex=true", "scope": "22,539 retained records for 94 eclipse dates; 535 rows for 1982 December 30. Event codes distinguish limb contacts, centres and edges.", "role": "Retained observations", "lineage": "One compiled dataset; its mirrors and the 2014 paper are not independent replications." }, { "id": "documentation", "title": "VI/140 documentation · sources, corrections and selection", "url": "https://vizier.cfa.harvard.edu/vizier/ftp/cats/vi/140/doc.txt", "scope": "Documents a model-derived layer-height inclusion range of −50 to +250 km and heterogeneous timing precision. The precise number and identity of discarded original reports cannot be recovered from retained rows alone.", "role": "Selection and metadata", "lineage": "Documentation of the same compilation." }, { "id": "paper", "title": "David Herald & Roger W. Sinnott, Analysis of lunar crater timings, 1842–2011, JBAA 124 (2014), pp.247–253", "url": "https://articles.adsabs.harvard.edu/pdf/2014JBAA..124..247H", "scope": "Model derivation and multi-eclipse interpretation. A notional layer is a timing-derived model parameter, not a detected opaque shell; single-observer scatter and bias matter.", "role": "Physical-model analysis", "lineage": "Analyses the same retained catalogue; not an independent observational witness." }, { "id": "nasa-shadow", "title": "NASA / Espenak & Meeus · Enlargement of Earth’s Shadows", "url": "https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/LEcat5/shadow.html", "scope": "Historical enlargement conventions, a gradual shadow boundary, and earlier S&T summary results. Its July and December 1982 table entries derive from S&T, so those values are not independent confirmations.", "role": "Explanatory synthesis", "lineage": "Partly shares the published observation lineage." }, { "id": "lidar", "title": "McCormick & Osborn · NASA-RP-1136 (1985), Airborne lidar measurements of El Chichon stratospheric aerosols, October–November 1982", "url": "https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/19850011240", "scope": "Full report reviewed for method, errors, GMT flight log and three sampled profile headers. Table A1 extends through November 8 GMT; December eclipse matching remains incomplete. The main plume aerosol maximum is 23–25 km, a different quantity from the timing-derived notional layer.", "role": "Independent atmospheric measurements", "lineage": "Different instrument, quantity, dates and spatial coverage; a physical-context lead, not a direct December 30 replication." } ], "open_questions": [ "Obtain an unrounded pre-event crater prediction or a contemporaneous calculation reference with its shadow convention.", "Read the separate December 1982 p.574 limb-contact table and April 1983 p.387 post-event report.", "Recover clock, instrument, weather, original-sheet and correction metadata for identified observers where available.", "Match independent aerosol profiles to the eclipse’s terminator geometry and dates before attributing an effect.", "Test a declared physical model across multiple eclipses with held-out data and explicit selection sensitivity." ], "publication_boundary": "No private email, address, correspondence attachment, manuscript scan or full catalogue is included. Only the public-source bibliographic records and Babylon aggregate calculations are exported." }